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Voyager Therapeutics, Inc. (VYGR)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 revenue was $6.47M, materially below Wall Street consensus of $13.55M, and diluted EPS was -$0.53 vs consensus -$0.464; the quarter was a clear miss on both top-line and EPS as collaboration revenue recognition declined . Consensus: Revenue $13.55M*, EPS -$0.464*.
  • Cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities ended at $295.1M with cash runway guidance maintained “into mid‑2027,” supported by partnered reimbursements and interest income .
  • Pipeline progressed: VY7523 anti‑tau antibody advanced to MAD study after positive SAD topline; tau gene therapy VY1706 completed pre‑IND interaction and posted robust NHP knockdown data; INDs for FA and GBA1 (Neurocrine) remain on track for 2025 .
  • Company will not host quarterly financial results calls going forward, a notable change in investor communication cadence .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • VY7523 anti‑tau antibody SAD trial met objectives: safety/tolerability, dose‑proportional PK, CSF:serum ratio 0.3%; MAD in early AD initiated with tau PET readout expected H2 2026 .
  • VY1706 tau silencing gene therapy showed 44–73% tau mRNA knockdown and 27–55% protein reduction in NHPs after single IV dose; broad CNS distribution with ~30x liver de‑targeting vs AAV9 .
  • Management reaffirmed strong liquidity and runway: “Voyager ended the first quarter of 2025 with a strong cash position of $295 million, which we expect to provide runway into mid‑2027” — Alfred Sandrock, CEO .

What Went Wrong

  • Collaboration revenue fell to $6.47M (Q1 2024: $19.52M), driving larger net loss (-$31.0M vs -$11.3M YoY) as revenue recognized under partnerships declined .
  • Operating expenses increased (R&D $31.5M vs $27.1M YoY; G&A $9.6M vs $8.6M YoY) as pipeline spend ramped .
  • SOD1 ALS program (VY9323) halted pending alternate payload discovery due to off‑target effects; timelines slipped, though runway was extended to mid‑2027 .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Collaboration Revenue ($USD)$24,629,000 $6,278,000 $6,473,000
Net (Loss) Income ($USD)$(9,044,000) $(34,487,000) $(31,021,000)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.16) $(0.59) $(0.53)
Research & Development ($USD)$30,241,000 $35,583,000 $31,526,000
General & Administrative ($USD)$8,168,000 $8,994,000 $9,640,000
Total Operating Expenses ($USD)$38,409,000 $44,577,000 $41,166,000
Operating (Loss) ($USD)$(13,780,000) $(38,299,000) $(34,693,000)

Results vs Wall Street Consensus (Q1 2025):

MetricConsensus*ActualBeat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)$13,551,360*$6,473,000 Miss
Diluted EPS ($USD)-$0.464*-$0.53 Miss
# of Estimates (Revenue)11*——
# of Estimates (EPS)10*——

Balance Sheet KPIs:

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Cash, Cash Equivalents & Marketable Securities ($USD)$345,360,000 $332,388,000 $295,122,000
Total Assets ($USD)$426,041,000 $393,050,000 $353,240,000
Deferred Revenue ($USD)$34,782,000 $30,397,000 $25,855,000
Total Stockholders’ Equity ($USD)$330,310,000 $299,760,000 $272,702,000

Non‑GAAP Adjustments (periods shown where disclosed):

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025
Net Collaboration Revenue ($USD)$4,385,000 $4,845,000
Net R&D Expenses ($USD)$33,690,000 $29,898,000

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Cash RunwayCompany horizonInto mid‑2027 Into mid‑2027 Maintained
VY7523 MAD tau PET dataH2 2026H2 2026 H2 2026 Maintained
FA & GBA1 INDs (Neurocrine)20252025 2025 Maintained
VY1706 IND/CTA filings20262026 2026 Maintained
Quarterly earnings callsOngoingHost results calls Will not host quarterly financial results calls Changed (stopped)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: No Q1 2025 earnings call; the company will not host quarterly results calls going forward . Themes are tracked using Q3/Q4 2024 calls and Q1 2025 press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024)Previous Mentions (Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Tau as next critical AD targetEmphasized tau PET linkage; anti‑tau and knockdown strategies Reinforced tau knockdown and antibody strategy; external data support Advanced VY7523 into MAD; robust VY1706 NHP data Strengthening
Anti‑tau antibody differentiationC‑terminal/pathologic epitope; model predictive value vs failed N‑terminal antibodies Push high dose; target low‑tau/APOE subsets; safety read‑through Positive SAD PK/safety; MAD initiated Progressing
Tau knockdown (gene therapy)Broad knockdown; once‑and‑done IV capsids GLP tox, IND‑enabling for 2026 NHP knockdown 44–73%; liver de‑targeting; IND 2026 Progressing
ALPL non‑viral shuttlePreclinical exploration; potential BBB transport of proteins/oligos Plans to share preclinical data later in year Not a Q1 focus; still preclinical Steady
Partnerships/milestonesNovartis capsid license; Neurocrine dev candidate Milestone/opportunity pipeline and cash extension Neurocrine INDs for FA/GBA1 in 2025; $35M potential milestones 2025–2026 Steady/Supportive
SOD1 ALS program statusIND plan for VY9323 in 2025 Payload concerns; program back to research VY9323 halted; alternate payload to be assessed; runway extended Reset

Management Commentary

  • “Voyager ended the first quarter of 2025 with a strong cash position of $295 million, which we expect to provide runway into mid‑2027… we could earn up to $35 million… from the Neurocrine‑partnered FA and GBA1 programs” — Alfred W. Sandrock, Jr., M.D., Ph.D., CEO .
  • “The Company does not plan to host quarterly financial results conference calls moving forward.” .
  • “In an NHP study, a single IV administration of VY1706 significantly reduced tau mRNA (up to 73%), with broad brain distribution and 30X liver de‑targeting following a single IV dose of 1.3e13 vg/kg.” .

Q&A Highlights

No Q1 2025 earnings call was held . Select late‑Q4 themes that inform current period:

  • Dose strategy and patient selection for VY7523 MAD (target low‑tau/APOE status; push doses to test tau PET signal) .
  • IND path and GLP tox for tau knockdown; advantages vs ASO (once‑and‑done IV; broader distribution) .
  • ALPL shuttle potential and differentiation vs transferrin receptor shuttles (PK/safety considerations) .

Estimates Context

  • VYGR missed consensus on both revenue and EPS for Q1 2025. Revenue was $6.47M vs consensus $13.55M*, and diluted EPS was -$0.53 vs consensus -$0.464*. With 11 revenue and 10 EPS estimates*, the magnitude of the top‑line shortfall likely necessitates downward revisions to near‑term collaboration revenue expectations given partnership revenue timing variability .
    Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Top‑line and EPS miss driven by lower collaboration revenue; expect sell‑side to recalibrate near‑term revenue models and widen ranges on partnership timing sensitivity .
  • Liquidity remains a core strength; runway to mid‑2027 provides ample time for value‑creating clinical and preclinical milestones, including tau programs and Neurocrine‑partnered INDs .
  • Tau thesis is strengthening: antibody approach has clean SAD, MAD underway; gene therapy shows robust NHP knockdown and de‑targeting — multiple shots on goal with complementary mechanisms .
  • Communication cadence shift (no quarterly calls) puts more weight on formal filings and event‑driven press releases; monitor ASGCT/AD/PD/AAIC/CTAD disclosures and 10‑Q/8‑K updates .
  • Watch Neurocrine FA/GBA1 INDs in 2025; milestones up to $35M in 2025–2026 could be a non‑dilutive upside versus current runway assumptions .
  • SOD1 payload reset reduces near‑term ALS optionality but does not impair capsid platform; focus should tilt to Alzheimer’s tau assets and partnered gene therapy proof‑of‑concepts .
  • Near‑term catalysts: additional VY7523 SAD data presentations, ASGCT tau presentations, and ongoing MAD enrollment; medium‑term: H2 2026 tau PET readout and 2026 VY1706 IND/CTA filings .